Douglas County has lost about 2,685 jobs over the past year, and an August record high unemployment rate of 11.4 percent is significantly slowing economic recovery, according to Dr. William “Joey” Smith, University of West Georgia (UWG) economics professor.

Smith found some optimism in the growth of warehousing and distribution employment which could help the county join the nationwide trend of recovery sometime late next year.

Smith’s presentation was part of the annual 2009 Regional Economic Forecast Breakfast held Tuesday morning at UWG.

He told the audience that regional recovery will likely be late in 2010 since the housing slump and unemployment numbers are still holding growth down.

“With hail, swine flu, floods and recession, expect West Georgia rivers to turn to blood in the first quarter of the year,” Smith said. “The housing market continues to have a large negative impact and goods production has suffered double-digit declines across the region.”

He also noted that regulators have closed the doors on three West Georgia banks during the past year and unemployment still remains high.

Nationwide, he said consumer sentiment is rising some and the Index of Leading Economic Indicators is pointing upward. That is good news for the nation, he added, but the trend has not yet reached the West Georgia region.

Looking at specific parts of the West Georgia economy, Smith sees both good and bad indicators.

“West Georgia has found the bottom in building permit numbers,” he said. “It’s zero!”

Douglas County will issue about 115 building permits this year, a 62 percent reduction, compared to 306 last year and 1,742 in 2006.

“Housing is continuing its downward slide and foreclosures are getting worse,” Smith said. “However, pending home sales in the South are picking up and holding.”

All West Georgia counties showed substantial employment declines in the past year, with unemployment hitting a 30-year high, but may have peaked, he said.

Douglas County job loss was 6.6 percent, comparing the first quarters of 2008 and 2009. The largest drop was in the real estate and rental/leasing trade with a 31 percent reduction.

The most significant plant closings announced in the past year included Steelcase, a Lithia Springs furniture manufacturer, with 250 jobs lost, and Nioxin Research Laboratories, which will close in 2010, eliminating 112 jobs. The most significant retail closing was Circuit City, resulting in the loss of about 60 jobs.

“With a significant downturn in consumer spending starting in late 2008, employment in the retail trade will likely continue in a negative direction until the job market conditions improve,” Smith said. “Government employment was up 4 percent this year, mainly due to the opening of two new Douglas County schools.”

Smith noted that retail trade is the largest employment sector in Douglas County, accounting for one in five jobs. He said the record high unemployment is clearly undermining consumer confidence and the ability to spend, slowing retail sales.

However, he noted the success of Douglas County in recent years in using its accessibility as a selling point to attract major commercial and distribution facilities.

“Convenient access to I-20, Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport and the Norfolk-Southern intermodal terminal in Austell make Douglas County a particularly attractive destination for distribution and other transportation oriented firms,” Smith said.

Donald Ratajczak, economics emeritus professor at Georgia State University, talked to the meeting about the Georgia and U.S. economic outlook.

“We had a liquidity crisis of major proportion and came within a hair of the second Great Depression,” Ratajczak said. “The only difference was that we didn’t have a major run on the banks.”

He said this is a great time to buy a home, due to low interest rates and housing price declines. However, he added that overly protective regulators are preventing banks for approving home loans.

He predicted that there will be almost no growth through the rest of this year and early next year. By the fourth quarter of next year, there should be about 4 percent growth in the economy, he predicted.

“If the regulators don’t kill us, we’ll finally be out of this mire by then,” he said.

Ratajczak said the president’s federal stimulus package has been effective in preventing a complete collapse of the economy. However, he said he would have liked to have seen the administration draft the legislation rather than leaving it up to Congress to add its favorite local projects.